Frictionless vehicles and binary power will define transportation in the world ahead
Transportation technology is progressing at a much slower pace than some of the other sciences such as information technology, biotech, and nanotechnology. As an example, the world’s human speed record was set in 1969, a full 37 years ago, when Thomas Stafford, John Young, and Gene Cernan flew in Apollo 10 at 24,790 mph. While there is much talk about flying at a speed that approaches the speed of light, very little effort is actually being expended in this area.
However, transportation technology is about to move ahead more rapidly in the coming years with the advent of two radically new technologies – frictionless vehicles and binary power.
Throughout history we have learned that the two principle driving forces of humanity are freedom and control. While current automotive technology gives us the freedom to drive as fast or slow as our vehicle will take us, and control over our timing and direction, we are still restricted to driving on the ground and we have a hornet’s nest of laws to contend with regarding speed, flow, and operation.
Understanding the “freedom and control” drivers is key to understanding the future of transportation. Any new forms of transportation that do not measurably improve our sense of freedom or give us added control of our lives will likely fail in the marketplace.
In the near future, automotive companies will focus on fully automated vehicles where people can “punch in” or “speak” the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there. This “control feature” will open up huge additional markets for automotive companies to sell to the elderly, families with kids too young to drive, and the visually, physically, and mentally impaired. The arrival of fully automated navigation systems for ground-based vehicles will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for flying vehicles.
Here are a few other transportation landmarks that will help pave the way for the more significant innovations.
- By 2010 personal transportation devices will be all the rage and electric shoes with built-in roller-skates will be gaining much of the attention. After nine years of heavy media coverage, the Segway Human Transporter will begin to gain serious market share.
- By 2015 traditional gas-powered autos will start to decline with electric automobiles and hybrids taking up most of the slack.
- By 2020 we will see an industry being built up around self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the dark. “Glow Roads” will dramatically change the night-time aesthetics of major cities and will be shown to improve driving safety at night and reduce the need for streetlights.
- By 2025 a first attempt at launching the space elevator will fail, setting the industry back a decade.
Around 2030 we will see commercialization of the first friction-free no-moving-parts flying vehicles which will be considered by many to be the ultimate freedom machine. Much like the transition from analog to digital in the world of information technology, the study of traditional mechanics and traditional aerodynamics will be replaced with a new physics governing vehicular movement.
Even today, flying cars are very much on the radar screen to become a next generation automotive technology. They will begin with a more convenient version of today’s airplanes and eventually converting over to the frictionless cars.
The Flying Car Era
The flying car era will really begin around 2015 with flying drones. Flying drones will be used by FedEx and UPS to deliver packages, Pizza Hut to deliver pizzas, and Kroger and Safeway to deliver groceries. But beyond that, drones will enable homes to be taken off the grid with delivery of water and electricity (changing out batteries for the home), trash and sewage pickup, and much more. These too will begin as air-powered vehicles and later convert to frictionless drones.
Six key technological breakthroughs will be needed for the first generation of flying cars to become viable – the fully automated navigation systems, directional layering of airspace, low-impact vertical take-off, convenient fly-drive capability, silent engines, and specialized safety systems.
- Fully automated navigation systems – The average person has a difficult time navigating on a two dimensional surface. The flying car industry will not be able to “get off the ground” without an onboard navigator that “handles the driving”. Yes, people will want the freedom of being able to do some creative maneuvering in certain situations, but that will only be allowed in rare instances.
- Directional layering of airspace – With several hundred thousand vehicles flying over a city, there will need to be an organized system for managing the traffic, and having all vehicles at a particular altitude traveling the same direction would eliminate many problems. For example, all vehicles traveling at 1,000 ft altitude would be traveling due north, at 1,010 ft altitude 1 degree east of due north, 1,020 ft altitude 2 degrees east of due north, etc. Vehicles would spiral up or down to make their turns. While not a perfect solution because the North Pole becomes a crash point for those flying due north, it does represent a good starting point for engineering a solution.
- Low-impact vertical take-off – For use by the average person, flying cars cannot have a runway requirement. They need to take off and land vertically without blowing the leaves off of trees or shutters off your house.
- Convenient fly-drive capability – As humanity makes the transition from ground-based autos to flying cars there will be a need for both driving on the ground and flying in the air.
- Silent engines – Very few cities will want to put up with the noise of several hundred thousand flying vehicles if they all sound like airplanes today.
- Specialized safety systems – To date both aircraft and airspace have been closely controlled by organizations like the FAA and the NTSB to insure the safety of the flying public. Because of the sheer volume of vehicles and the lower caliber of individuals allowed to fly, additional safety measures will have to be in place. Safety technologies will include collision avoidance systems and drop-out-of-the-sky emergency airbags on the outside of vehicles.
Wireless power demonstration
The friction-free no-moving-parts vehicles will run on what we call “binary power”. Binary power is the concept where two otherwise harmless beams of energy will intersect at some point in space creating a source of power.
To better explain binary power, think in terms of two invisible beams intersecting in a room and the point at which they intersect is a glowing point of light. Yes, binary power will eventually replace all light bulbs. And lest you think it can only be used for intense forms of power, it will also be used to create “points” of sound, eliminating the need for speakers and headphones.
2050 and the Transportation Industry
With power being beamed in, the cost, weight, and manufacturing complexity of these vehicles will be greatly reduced. For this reason the industry will go through a very rapid conversion leaving the mechanical masterpieces we know as cars today destined for the scrap heap.
- By 2050, because of friction-free technologies and advances in material science, the average passenger vehicle will weigh less than 200 lbs.
- By 2050, because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for a vehicle will be less than one hour.
- By 2050, the cost of the average vehicle will be under $5,000 in today’s dollars.
- By 2050, because of the use of automated navigation systems, traffic courts will be a distant memory.
Once the flying car industry takes off there will be a gradual decaying of the existing highway system. Eventually highways will go away, starting around 2070.
2050 and the Emerging Space Industry
Frictionless engines will form the basis of new propulsion systems for space travel.
- By 2050 we will have fully functioning space elevators operating at full capacity, moving both people and supplies into space.
- By 2050 over one million people will have visited the moon.
- By 2050 several dozen space hotels will have made a major impact on tourism with growing numbers of people opting for the “sleeping with the stars” vacation package.
- By 2050 several space stations will have been started as small working cities to build the next generation of space-based industries.
2050 and the Power Industry
The power that drives vehicles will transition from oil to electric and later to binary power. Electric vehicles will start to make major market inroads around 2015 because of improved battery technologies and because of the fact that the electric infrastructure is already in place for rapid “refueling”. Hydrogen will make some inroads but will not become anything more than a niche industry.
- By 2050 oil and gas will remain plentiful as demand drops precipitously with the emergence of alternative sources. Oil & gas will remain as an energy source, but will only be used in niche industries.
- By 2050 the automotive industry will make a near-complete transition to binary power as a principle source of vehicular power.
- By 2050 space-based power stations will be operational, supplying a significant percentage of the world’s power needs.
- By 2050 nearly all light bulbs will have disappeared, replaced with binary power creating points of light in space.
2050 and the Shifting of Politics and Culture
While individuals will be striving to gain control, our countries and governments will begin to see their control slipping away. The Internet has created borderless economies that have confused the issue of power and control and even the sovereignty of nations. With the Internet’s ability to conduct business and perform flawless transactions across borders, countries have essentially lost control of commerce. Flying cars will take this one step further and countries will begin to lose control of their citizens as national borders become meaningless.
While it is possible to visualize “electronic borders” formed around the perimeter of a country, cloaking devices and other types of system hacks will quickly render that kind of system useless.
- By 2050 the Nation-State as we know it today, will be replaced by a new form of governance.
- By 2050 there will have been a “peeling apart” of the law-of-the-land and the law-of-the-people. People will always demand solutions for ownership issues related to property rights, but individuals will become highly mobile entities requiring a new form of global governance tied to an internationally recognized ethics standard.
- By 2050 we will see a number of virtual, non-land-based, countries come into existence, each attempting to gain international recognition and citizens from around the world.
The future of transportation will be derived by strong desires for personal freedom and people’s need to gain control over lifestyles that are moving faster and faster.
At the DaVinci Institute, our goal in writing “2050 and the Future of Transportation” was to help stimulate thinking and hopefully make it controversial enough to cause these topics to be debated. While we did manage to turn our crystal ball on high beam for this exercise, there are many optional paths that we could potentially go down to cause a different outcome.
Please take some time to challenge our assumptions, and let us know what you think.
By Thomas Frey, Executive Director and Senior Futurist at the DaVinci Institute
Polish translation http://www.onlinecarparts.co.uk/science/?p=715
Study Abroad Safety Tips
We all know that studying abroad can be a really fun experience and you should do everything you can to make the most of your time abroad. However, as well as having lots of fun you need to be aware of some of the dangers that you can encounter when you plan to study abroad.
This article is going to provide you firstly with some links and tips on how to find out more information about the country you are going to be traveling to, and then we will give you some hints and tips on how to stay safe and some general rules you should follow.
Travel Warnings and Country Information
Before you depart you should try and gather as much information as you can about current travel warnings that are in place to specific countries. It is recommended that you do not travel to countries on these lists. You should also be aware that most insurance companies will void any coverage you have if you are injured or hurt in countries that are on these lists. The best way to find what the current travel warnings are is to visit:
- Current US Travel Warnings
- Current UK Travel Warnings
As well as general country travel warnings it is good to get as much information about the country you are traveling to such as traditions, procedures on how to do things and much more. To find country specific information we recommend you visit:
- US State Department Country Information Sheets
- UK Country Information Sheets
We also recommend using resources such as Google and Wikipedia which will provide you with more specific country information.
In Country Safety Tips
Hopefully before you have left you would have studied up and learnt as much about your adopted country before you have left so this will put you in good stead for when you are there as you will have a better knowledge of customs and traditions.
You should also take care to follow some very simple rules so that you do not bring unwanted trouble to you:
Stay Alert and Trust your Instincts
Its always good to be alert and aware of what is going on around you. If you are in a busy market or square, just make sure you are aware of the people and what is going on around you and if you feel uneasy or are not sure about something get out and away from the place. At the end of the day you should trust your instincts and if you are not happy about something move away and to an area that you feel more comfortable.
Keep Valuables Close to you
Just like when you are home, do not flash your wallet with lots of money in it or your brand new mobile phone around. This will only draw attention to yourself and make you are target for pickpockets
Keep a Low Profile
As you are a foreigner in the country you are traveling to try to keep a low profile as much as possible. That said, this does not mean you have to hide away but try not to broadcast the fact you are a foreigner. For example try not to talk too loudly in open spaces and try to dress a little more like others from your host country, this will help your integration and will stop unwanted attention being draw to you.
Learn Your Surroundings
Similar to gathering information about the country you will be visiting, it is also equally important to get as much information about your host town or city. This information will most likely come from your Study Abroad Office but you can also ask past students about this. You want to learn things like what areas you should avoid, how the public transportation system works, etc...
At some point you will want to socialize and this often leads to drinking. The golden rule with drinking is to drink sensibly and among friends who you trust. Alcohol lowers your inhibitions and sense of judgement which can make you very vulnerable to thieves and trouble - so the advice is drink sensibly or not at all!
Keep in Contact
Probably one of the most important rules is to keep in contact with people and let somebody know where you are going. Nowadays it is relatively cheap to have a mobile phone and this will make it easy for people to contact you should they need to. Also, if you are sharing an apartment with someone let them know if you are going out and where - that way if anything happens someone knows where you went.
At the end of the day you want your study abroad experience to be fun and with little or no hassle and for most of the time it will be, but by making yourself aware of the hazards you can avoid any trouble and have a great time abroad!
Study Abroad Guide